While I have been wrong a lot over the past few months, I would point out a few important factors that we should keep in mind. 1) The time to buy is when recession is confirmed [I've been beating the Sep/Oct/Nov drum for this to occur for a long time] 2) The recession is not just starting as most believe - it's in the 6th or 7th inning [I finally found an article that shares my viewpoint that the recession started in Q4 2007: http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?id=262592&pgid=hparticle] 3) Once the economy turns around [which requires two things to happen a) credit crunch to end which it mostly has and b) a restoration in trust in the economy which could happen at any time] it will likely be "too late" to buy (it won't be, but it will feel too late as we'll be far from our lows).
We may or may not revisit the 10/10/2008 lows, but I believe the 2002 lows will hold in any case -- because I believe the economic outlook is a lot better than most expect.
Also, Jeremy Siegel posted a good article on Yahoo that you may wish to review [http://finance.yahoo.com/expert/article/futureinvest/118916] in which he argues for a 20% return over the next year. One of his big points is also one of mine - that it's unreasonable to use trough earnings as the denominator in a P/E and compare to "normal". He claims that Ford, GM, and Sprint are less than 0.2% of the S&P 500 yet reduced the S&P's earnings by over 20% due to massive losses.
Look for high volatility to continue, but subside over the next 3 to 9 months. Conservative investors should strongly consider intermediate term investment grade corporate bonds.
Wednesday, November 05, 2008
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
The Sky Isn't Falling (Again)
Contrary to popular belief, the US economy is not failing. Nor is the world economy.
Therefore when the market is more than 4 standard deviations below its 2 year moving average [go to Yahoo! finance and graph an index, add Bollinger Bands for the 499 day period with 4 standard deviations, and you'll see that we're below the bottom line) it may be a GOOD TIME TO BUY [my guess, and it's just a guess, is that the S&P 500 sees an intraday low of 768 to 825 which implies downside of 8 to 15% from here -- however during bottoming periods like this the "bottom" can be very short -- sometimes less than an hour -- so hitting "the bottom" is unachievable].
PS: High yield bond spreads to treasuries are at an all time high. Unless defaults are far worse (or recoveries far less, or both) than at any time since the market was created in the mid 1970's then now is probably a terrific time to buy junk bonds.
Many happy returns.
Therefore when the market is more than 4 standard deviations below its 2 year moving average [go to Yahoo! finance and graph an index, add Bollinger Bands for the 499 day period with 4 standard deviations, and you'll see that we're below the bottom line) it may be a GOOD TIME TO BUY [my guess, and it's just a guess, is that the S&P 500 sees an intraday low of 768 to 825 which implies downside of 8 to 15% from here -- however during bottoming periods like this the "bottom" can be very short -- sometimes less than an hour -- so hitting "the bottom" is unachievable].
PS: High yield bond spreads to treasuries are at an all time high. Unless defaults are far worse (or recoveries far less, or both) than at any time since the market was created in the mid 1970's then now is probably a terrific time to buy junk bonds.
Many happy returns.
Saturday, October 11, 2008
Thoughts
We live in the most interesting time for finance since the Great Depression – that much is sure. We’ve seen the worst one year return for the S&P 500 and Dow since the Depression – same with the worst 30 day return. This crash should be known as the “Panic of ‘08”.
Because this is the worst panic since the 30’s, the temptation is to compare this crisis to ones from before the end of the depression. This is a bad comparison – and would be akin to seeing the roaring twenties bubble bursting, and making predictions using the dark ages in Europe as a template for what happens when an unprecedented expansion crashes.
Institutions were created as an effect of the depression, such as the FDIC, unemployment insurance, the SEC, and many others. These have changed the world for the better, and our downside economic risk is much less now.
Similarly, economic data and news are much more available, and current. Many believe that the Depression was caused by central bankers tilting at inflation windmills that had been extinguished years before – in the United States Andrew Mellon was raising rates until 1932 – 3 years into the Great Depression. We should note that today the Fed Funds interest rate was first cut over a year ago – and we’re seeing governments around the world that had been fighting the inflation windmill too long, like the EU and China, now cutting rates.
So we should not be surprised when this panic is over much faster than the doomsayers expect.
Finally, Rebecca asked me to comment on Credit Default Swaps – why they are unregulated, what part was played in the downfall of AIG, Lehman, or the freezing of the credit markets:
CDS are unregulated because of the way they came into existence – they started as agreements between financial firms to insure debts. If Bear Stearns owned debt from Russia, and wanted to buy insurance, they could agree with AIG and a contract be entered into. Insurance is a legitimate and needed product that should exist.
Problems began when it was realized that Credit Default Swaps could be used to speculate on a default without having owned the debt. To use an example: I might say “I’ll bet you $100 that the Steelers will win the Super Bowl next year” – and you might have to pay me $10,000 if I’m right because it’s such low odds today. Credit Default Swaps are almost exactly the same thing – a hedge fund would say to AIG “I’ll give you $17,000 per year for the next 5 years for you to guarantee $10 million in Fannie Mae senior debt for those 5 years”, they agree and write up a contract.
This led to failures for a simple reason – our financial institutions are based on trust and faith. Just watch “It’s a Wonderful Life” and you’ll see that a bank doesn’t have a vault where they make a neat stack of the money each account deposits with them waiting for the day it is withdrawn – they keep some liquidity but invest the vast majority of their deposits. When everyone asks for their money back at once (because they don’t trust the bank) it causes a run on the bank, leading to failure. This is what happened to Bear Stearns and many other institutions this year. Credit Default Swaps led to these runs on the banks because when people began betting on a failure – by buying the CDS of Bear Stearns – it drove up the price of that protection – and people notice that. So when the CDS of Bear Stearns began trading at such high prices that was implied there was over a 50% chance of a failure – everyone who had money there started pulling it, because it was obvious trust had been lost.
So regulating Credit Default Swaps will help many things, but unless regulation requires that you actually own the bonds being insured through a CDS it will not stop this phenomenon whereby we see speculative buying of CDS which ends up bringing down the institution [people blame the shorting of the common stock, but it is more the speculative buying of CDS that casuses these runs on banks].
CDS led in part to our credit freeze for a different simple reason – there is too much of them and no one knows how much exposure firms have. Buffett called derivatives (talking about CDS presumably) “weapons of mass financial destruction” years ago – and he was right. AIG “failed” because they had been writing an extreme amount of these contracts – and when things got worse than anyone had predicted – it put all of AIG’s AAA balance sheet at extreme risk. Now credit between financial institutions has been frozen because each firm wants to hoard cash and doesn’t trust their neighbors.
Another problem with CDS is counterparty risk – they’re agreements between two parties – so your counterparty better be sound. The way firms account for these is they offset their exposure – i.e. if AIG has written trillions of dollars of CDS – but some benefit AIG if Lehman fails, and some hurt AIG if Lehman fails, they net these positions. The problem is that those agreements are with different parties, and if one side fails the result won’t look like they netted. So how does one firm trust another when you can’t tell what their risk is?
So we need regulation of Credit Default Swaps where the amount is limited – just like a bank cannot lever up infinitely, neither should AIG have had so much discretion as to the amount of CDS they would write. We also need a universal counterparty, so that the risk that the other side fails goes away. I believe that universal counterparty is in the works currently. However, I don’t think that changes to restrict the amount of CDS you can write is in the works [but will happen eventually because it’s so obvious], nor do I think anyone in power wants to make CDS into an insurance policy rather than speculative bet.
This last factor is important – if you had to own the debt being insured in order to buy a CDS (and had to sell them together as well), then they wouldn’t be nearly so speculative (and CDS prices would reflect the actual perceived risks of institutions from the parties doing business with them, rather than the perceived risks of speculative gamblers). I believe it is highly unlikely this change will be made, which is unfortunate. There’s a huge difference between someone that I owe money to being able to insure that debt, and someone being able to take my bet that the Steelers will win the Super Bowl next year – one is a legitimate financial activity that is needed and desired, while the other is enabling speculation.
Because this is the worst panic since the 30’s, the temptation is to compare this crisis to ones from before the end of the depression. This is a bad comparison – and would be akin to seeing the roaring twenties bubble bursting, and making predictions using the dark ages in Europe as a template for what happens when an unprecedented expansion crashes.
Institutions were created as an effect of the depression, such as the FDIC, unemployment insurance, the SEC, and many others. These have changed the world for the better, and our downside economic risk is much less now.
Similarly, economic data and news are much more available, and current. Many believe that the Depression was caused by central bankers tilting at inflation windmills that had been extinguished years before – in the United States Andrew Mellon was raising rates until 1932 – 3 years into the Great Depression. We should note that today the Fed Funds interest rate was first cut over a year ago – and we’re seeing governments around the world that had been fighting the inflation windmill too long, like the EU and China, now cutting rates.
So we should not be surprised when this panic is over much faster than the doomsayers expect.
Finally, Rebecca asked me to comment on Credit Default Swaps – why they are unregulated, what part was played in the downfall of AIG, Lehman, or the freezing of the credit markets:
CDS are unregulated because of the way they came into existence – they started as agreements between financial firms to insure debts. If Bear Stearns owned debt from Russia, and wanted to buy insurance, they could agree with AIG and a contract be entered into. Insurance is a legitimate and needed product that should exist.
Problems began when it was realized that Credit Default Swaps could be used to speculate on a default without having owned the debt. To use an example: I might say “I’ll bet you $100 that the Steelers will win the Super Bowl next year” – and you might have to pay me $10,000 if I’m right because it’s such low odds today. Credit Default Swaps are almost exactly the same thing – a hedge fund would say to AIG “I’ll give you $17,000 per year for the next 5 years for you to guarantee $10 million in Fannie Mae senior debt for those 5 years”, they agree and write up a contract.
This led to failures for a simple reason – our financial institutions are based on trust and faith. Just watch “It’s a Wonderful Life” and you’ll see that a bank doesn’t have a vault where they make a neat stack of the money each account deposits with them waiting for the day it is withdrawn – they keep some liquidity but invest the vast majority of their deposits. When everyone asks for their money back at once (because they don’t trust the bank) it causes a run on the bank, leading to failure. This is what happened to Bear Stearns and many other institutions this year. Credit Default Swaps led to these runs on the banks because when people began betting on a failure – by buying the CDS of Bear Stearns – it drove up the price of that protection – and people notice that. So when the CDS of Bear Stearns began trading at such high prices that was implied there was over a 50% chance of a failure – everyone who had money there started pulling it, because it was obvious trust had been lost.
So regulating Credit Default Swaps will help many things, but unless regulation requires that you actually own the bonds being insured through a CDS it will not stop this phenomenon whereby we see speculative buying of CDS which ends up bringing down the institution [people blame the shorting of the common stock, but it is more the speculative buying of CDS that casuses these runs on banks].
CDS led in part to our credit freeze for a different simple reason – there is too much of them and no one knows how much exposure firms have. Buffett called derivatives (talking about CDS presumably) “weapons of mass financial destruction” years ago – and he was right. AIG “failed” because they had been writing an extreme amount of these contracts – and when things got worse than anyone had predicted – it put all of AIG’s AAA balance sheet at extreme risk. Now credit between financial institutions has been frozen because each firm wants to hoard cash and doesn’t trust their neighbors.
Another problem with CDS is counterparty risk – they’re agreements between two parties – so your counterparty better be sound. The way firms account for these is they offset their exposure – i.e. if AIG has written trillions of dollars of CDS – but some benefit AIG if Lehman fails, and some hurt AIG if Lehman fails, they net these positions. The problem is that those agreements are with different parties, and if one side fails the result won’t look like they netted. So how does one firm trust another when you can’t tell what their risk is?
So we need regulation of Credit Default Swaps where the amount is limited – just like a bank cannot lever up infinitely, neither should AIG have had so much discretion as to the amount of CDS they would write. We also need a universal counterparty, so that the risk that the other side fails goes away. I believe that universal counterparty is in the works currently. However, I don’t think that changes to restrict the amount of CDS you can write is in the works [but will happen eventually because it’s so obvious], nor do I think anyone in power wants to make CDS into an insurance policy rather than speculative bet.
This last factor is important – if you had to own the debt being insured in order to buy a CDS (and had to sell them together as well), then they wouldn’t be nearly so speculative (and CDS prices would reflect the actual perceived risks of institutions from the parties doing business with them, rather than the perceived risks of speculative gamblers). I believe it is highly unlikely this change will be made, which is unfortunate. There’s a huge difference between someone that I owe money to being able to insure that debt, and someone being able to take my bet that the Steelers will win the Super Bowl next year – one is a legitimate financial activity that is needed and desired, while the other is enabling speculation.
Friday, October 10, 2008
Market Bottom?
I see reason to believe that the market bottom was this morning. We won't know for sure until this is confirmed by declining volatility levels (^VIX and ^VXO). The market has fallen over 40% in the past year and over 30% in the past 30 days making this the worst crash since the depression.
Some pundits are saying "you still have time to sell now" - I don't believe this. Market crashes happen near the top - that's why this big decline has come as a day after day grinding rather than a single (or double) day event.
I'm a big believer that "the pendulum swings both ways, and it swings too far". There is good reason to believe it has now swung too far:
1) Historic speed of decline
2) Extreme fear levels (^VIX)
3) Favorable valuation levels (trailing 10 year P/E is now down to 13.6, price to book, dividend yield etc are all at long term lows)
4) Forced selling brings price too low
5) No one wants to own stocks
6) Front page of newspapers and magazines (not financial magazines) is the stock market
I read somewhere today an interesting statement - when markets are going up we all forget what can surprisingly go wrong - now we're all forgetting what can surprisingly go right. I believe there's a lot that may go right that will shock investors (or former investors who have bailed) -- most notably the shocking amounts of liquidity being pumped into markets which could create a major boom.
Will I be right? Not based on my recent predictions.
While I'm not going to update the recommendations (lack of time) I will add MER - Merrill Lynch to the list as of today's close.
Some pundits are saying "you still have time to sell now" - I don't believe this. Market crashes happen near the top - that's why this big decline has come as a day after day grinding rather than a single (or double) day event.
I'm a big believer that "the pendulum swings both ways, and it swings too far". There is good reason to believe it has now swung too far:
1) Historic speed of decline
2) Extreme fear levels (^VIX)
3) Favorable valuation levels (trailing 10 year P/E is now down to 13.6, price to book, dividend yield etc are all at long term lows)
4) Forced selling brings price too low
5) No one wants to own stocks
6) Front page of newspapers and magazines (not financial magazines) is the stock market
I read somewhere today an interesting statement - when markets are going up we all forget what can surprisingly go wrong - now we're all forgetting what can surprisingly go right. I believe there's a lot that may go right that will shock investors (or former investors who have bailed) -- most notably the shocking amounts of liquidity being pumped into markets which could create a major boom.
Will I be right? Not based on my recent predictions.
While I'm not going to update the recommendations (lack of time) I will add MER - Merrill Lynch to the list as of today's close.
Monday, October 06, 2008
The Market is Cheap
Well, in case it wasn’t terribly obvious, I was very wrong in my last posting. I called it “time to buy” – it wasn’t (at least in the short term). I said I thought WaMu would be fine – they weren’t [I will say that looking back on 2008, we will know that Jamie Dimon got the best deal of the year in purchasing WaMu for only $1.9 billion, without assuming any debt].
So I was wrong. However, I believe that the market is a “screaming buy”. We have fallen too fast (fallen faster than in 1987, looking at it month by month, based on percentage below 100 and 200 day moving average). We have cheap valuations. There is an insane amount of stimulus being applied – which lags by 6 to 12 months, but will eventually cause an improvement in the markets. If housing bottoms in the first half of 2009 [as I’ve long predicted], then this will look like a tremendous buying opportunity – and I think it is.
So how did my last recommendations fare? [MMM (-9.92%), UNH (-25.70%), PETS (-9.33%), APA (-20.69%), DPS (-3.00%), ADSK (-17.07%), AIB (-22.70%), PBR (-18.92%), TEX (-37.04%), WM-PK (-100%)] averaging a loss of 26.44%, underperforming the S&P 500 [-15.78%] by a whopping 10.66%. Since inception on 7/31/2007 the recommendations have lost 11.82%, outperforming the S&P 500 [-25.97%] by 14.15%.
I recommend buying stocks at this juncture. Ones I prefer: SSO, QLD, DDM, DIG, UNH, COP, ADSK, AIB, PBR, TEX, ASF, MT, BBY, L, MDR, PCZ, BID, SVU, TXT.
Here are some stocks that hit 52 week lows today that I think are cheap:
TKR – Name P/E P/Book Enterprise Value/Revenue
ASF – Administaff 11.6 3.1 0.3
AET – Aetna 9.3 1.8 0.7
AA – Alcoa 7.5 0.9 0.8
MO – Altria 10.3 10.1 1.2
AXP – American Express 10.4 2.9 2.7
APA – Apache 7.0 1.8 2.7
MT – Arcelor Mittal 4.3 1.0 0.8
ADM – Archer-Daniels-Midland 6.9 0.9 0.3
BJS – BJ Services 7.3 1.5 1.0
BP – BP 5.7 1.4 0.5
BHI – Baker Hughes 9.1 2.3 1.4
BBY – Best Buy 10.3 2.9 0.4
BA – Boeing 9.2 4.7 0.6
BYD – Boyd Gaming 12.2 0.5 1.6
CBS – CBS Corp 7.0 0.4 1.1
CI – Cigna 8.9 1.9 0.6
CVS – CVS 15.0 1.4 0.7
DVR – Cal Dive 10.6 1.7 2.1
CAJ – Canon 10.3 1.6 0.9
KMX – CarMax 25.4 1.7 0.4
CAT – Caterpillar 8.1 3.3 1.3
CX – Cemex 5.1 0.7 1.2
CRL – Charles River Labs 21.1 1.9 3.0
CVX – Chevron 8.2 2.0 0.7
CHS – Chico’s 34.5 0.9 0.4
CBK – Christopher & Banks 18.0 1.1 0.3
XEC – Cimarex Energy 6.0 1.0 2.0
COH – Coach 9.4 4.8 2.1
COP – ConocoPhillips 5.9 1.1 0.6
GLW – Corning 7.8 1.7 3.3
DE – Deere & Co 7.7 2.2 1.4
DVN – Devon Energy 8.5 1.6 2.8
DFS – Discover Financial Services 11.8 0.9 NM
EMC – EMC Corp 13.9 1.9 1.5
FIS – Fidelity Info Services 9.3 0.9 1.4
FRX – Forest Labs 8.0 2.1 1.6
FDP – Fresh Del Monte Produce 7.0 0.9 0.5
FTO – Frontier Oil 4.9 1.4 0.3
GD – General Dynamics 11.4 2.2 0.9
GE – General Electric 10.9 1.8 4.2
GNA – Gerdau AmeriSteel 4.4 0.9 0.8
GSK – Glaxosmithkline 12.7 8.3 3.1
HAL – Halliburton 9.0 3.1 1.5
HES – Hess Corp 9.1 2.1 0.7
HPQ – Hewlett-Packard 12.7 2.7 0.9
IR – Ingersoll-Rand 6.3 0.8 1.4
IBM – IBM 12.4 5.0 1.6
IFF – International Flavor & Frag 14.1 4.6 1.7
KG – King Pharmaceuticals 15.4 0.8 0.7
L – Loews Corp 6.6 0.9 0.6
MAN – Manpower 7.5 1.0 0.2
MRO – Marathon Oil 7.4 1.3 0.5
MDR – McDermott International 7.3 3.1 0.6
MCK – McKesson 13.1 2.2 0.1
MRK – Merck 13.2 3.4 2.6
MCO – Moody’s 14.0 NM 4.2
MOT – Motorola 16.2 1.0 0.4
MUR – Murphy Oil 7.2 1.7 0.4
NYX – NYSE Euronext 10.0 0.9 2.1
NBR – Nabors Industries 6.5 1.2 1.8
NOV – National Oilwell Varco 8.7 1.5 1.5
NWS.A – News Corp 7.4 1.0 1.1
NE – Noble Corp 6.3 2.1 3.2
NUE – Nucor 5.7 1.4 0.6
OXY – Occidental Petroleum 7.1 2.0 2.2
PBY – Pep Boys 19.8 0.7 0.3
PCZ – Petro-Canada 3.8 1.0 0.7
PBR – Petrobras 14.7 2.6 1.9
PLA – Playboy NM 0.6 0.6
PKX – POSCO NM NM 1.0
PCP – Precision Castparts 9.0 2.3 1.4
PRU – Prudential Financial 10.0 1.1 0.9
RTN – Raytheon 13.0 1.8 1.0
RSC – REX Stores 5.1 0.4 0.4
COL – Rockwell Collins 10.6 4.4 1.6
RDC – Rowan Companies 5.2 1.1 1.4
SWY – Safeway 10.5 1.4 0.4
BID – Sothebys 5.9 1.6 1.6
SUN – Sunoco 14.2 1.5 0.1
SVU – SUPERVALU 7.3 0.7 0.3
TGT – Target 12.6 2.5 0.8
TTM – Tata Motors 6.0 1.5 0.6
TEX – Terex Corp 3.7 0.9 0.3
TXT – Textron 6.1 1.7 1.1
MMM – 3M 12.1 3.6 1.9
TWX – Time Warner 11.1 0.7 1.7
TSN – Tyson Foods 60.0 0.9 0.3
USG – USG Corp NM 1.0 0.7
UL – Unilever 14.5 1.2 0.6
VIA.B – Viacom 8.1 2.1 1.6
WAG – Walgreen 12.7 2.2 0.5
WLP – WellPoint 7.7 1.1 0.4
WSM – Williams-Sonoma 13.5 1.3 0.4
WYE – Wyeth 11.1 2.6 2.1
YUM – Yum! Brands 15.0 25.1 1.6
ZMH – Zimmer Holdings 17.1 2.4 3.3
ACMR – AC Moore 14.8 0.6 0.2
AAPL – Apple 19.2 4.4 2.1
BAMM – Books-A-Million 5.4 0.8 0.2
CAKE – Cheesecake Factory 12.9 1.6 0.7
CTXS – Citrix Systems 20.1 2.1 2.3
DELL – Dell 11.1 10.6 0.4
EBAY – eBay 47.0 2.2 2.4
ERTS – Electronic Arts 13.6 2.4 1.9
EXPE – Expedia 13.2 0.8 1.3
FWLT – Foster Wheeler 8.3 5.1 0.6
LOJN – LoJack 8.4 0.8 0.3
MNST – Monster Worldwide 14.1 1.5 0.9
FLWS – 1-800-Flowers.com 15.2 1.4 0.4
OXPS – optionsXpress 10.2 4.3 1.5
RICK – Rick’s Cabaret 7.5 1.2 1.9
RMCF – Rocky Mountain Chocolate 10.3 4.3 1.6
SIGM – Sigma Designs 6.4 1.1 0.8
SPLS – Staples 14.3 2.4 0.9
SBUX – Starbucks 20.7 4.0 1.0
WFMI – Whole Foods 17.1 1.7 0.4
Obviously this is not an exhaustive list of all cheap stocks – these are just the ones that hit new 52 week lows today that I noticed.
So I was wrong. However, I believe that the market is a “screaming buy”. We have fallen too fast (fallen faster than in 1987, looking at it month by month, based on percentage below 100 and 200 day moving average). We have cheap valuations. There is an insane amount of stimulus being applied – which lags by 6 to 12 months, but will eventually cause an improvement in the markets. If housing bottoms in the first half of 2009 [as I’ve long predicted], then this will look like a tremendous buying opportunity – and I think it is.
So how did my last recommendations fare? [MMM (-9.92%), UNH (-25.70%), PETS (-9.33%), APA (-20.69%), DPS (-3.00%), ADSK (-17.07%), AIB (-22.70%), PBR (-18.92%), TEX (-37.04%), WM-PK (-100%
I recommend buying stocks at this juncture. Ones I prefer: SSO, QLD, DDM, DIG, UNH, COP, ADSK, AIB, PBR, TEX, ASF, MT, BBY, L, MDR, PCZ, BID, SVU, TXT.
Here are some stocks that hit 52 week lows today that I think are cheap:
TKR – Name P/E P/Book Enterprise Value/Revenue
ASF – Administaff 11.6 3.1 0.3
AET – Aetna 9.3 1.8 0.7
AA – Alcoa 7.5 0.9 0.8
MO – Altria 10.3 10.1 1.2
AXP – American Express 10.4 2.9 2.7
APA – Apache 7.0 1.8 2.7
MT – Arcelor Mittal 4.3 1.0 0.8
ADM – Archer-Daniels-Midland 6.9 0.9 0.3
BJS – BJ Services 7.3 1.5 1.0
BP – BP 5.7 1.4 0.5
BHI – Baker Hughes 9.1 2.3 1.4
BBY – Best Buy 10.3 2.9 0.4
BA – Boeing 9.2 4.7 0.6
BYD – Boyd Gaming 12.2 0.5 1.6
CBS – CBS Corp 7.0 0.4 1.1
CI – Cigna 8.9 1.9 0.6
CVS – CVS 15.0 1.4 0.7
DVR – Cal Dive 10.6 1.7 2.1
CAJ – Canon 10.3 1.6 0.9
KMX – CarMax 25.4 1.7 0.4
CAT – Caterpillar 8.1 3.3 1.3
CX – Cemex 5.1 0.7 1.2
CRL – Charles River Labs 21.1 1.9 3.0
CVX – Chevron 8.2 2.0 0.7
CHS – Chico’s 34.5 0.9 0.4
CBK – Christopher & Banks 18.0 1.1 0.3
XEC – Cimarex Energy 6.0 1.0 2.0
COH – Coach 9.4 4.8 2.1
COP – ConocoPhillips 5.9 1.1 0.6
GLW – Corning 7.8 1.7 3.3
DE – Deere & Co 7.7 2.2 1.4
DVN – Devon Energy 8.5 1.6 2.8
DFS – Discover Financial Services 11.8 0.9 NM
EMC – EMC Corp 13.9 1.9 1.5
FIS – Fidelity Info Services 9.3 0.9 1.4
FRX – Forest Labs 8.0 2.1 1.6
FDP – Fresh Del Monte Produce 7.0 0.9 0.5
FTO – Frontier Oil 4.9 1.4 0.3
GD – General Dynamics 11.4 2.2 0.9
GE – General Electric 10.9 1.8 4.2
GNA – Gerdau AmeriSteel 4.4 0.9 0.8
GSK – Glaxosmithkline 12.7 8.3 3.1
HAL – Halliburton 9.0 3.1 1.5
HES – Hess Corp 9.1 2.1 0.7
HPQ – Hewlett-Packard 12.7 2.7 0.9
IR – Ingersoll-Rand 6.3 0.8 1.4
IBM – IBM 12.4 5.0 1.6
IFF – International Flavor & Frag 14.1 4.6 1.7
KG – King Pharmaceuticals 15.4 0.8 0.7
L – Loews Corp 6.6 0.9 0.6
MAN – Manpower 7.5 1.0 0.2
MRO – Marathon Oil 7.4 1.3 0.5
MDR – McDermott International 7.3 3.1 0.6
MCK – McKesson 13.1 2.2 0.1
MRK – Merck 13.2 3.4 2.6
MCO – Moody’s 14.0 NM 4.2
MOT – Motorola 16.2 1.0 0.4
MUR – Murphy Oil 7.2 1.7 0.4
NYX – NYSE Euronext 10.0 0.9 2.1
NBR – Nabors Industries 6.5 1.2 1.8
NOV – National Oilwell Varco 8.7 1.5 1.5
NWS.A – News Corp 7.4 1.0 1.1
NE – Noble Corp 6.3 2.1 3.2
NUE – Nucor 5.7 1.4 0.6
OXY – Occidental Petroleum 7.1 2.0 2.2
PBY – Pep Boys 19.8 0.7 0.3
PCZ – Petro-Canada 3.8 1.0 0.7
PBR – Petrobras 14.7 2.6 1.9
PLA – Playboy NM 0.6 0.6
PKX – POSCO NM NM 1.0
PCP – Precision Castparts 9.0 2.3 1.4
PRU – Prudential Financial 10.0 1.1 0.9
RTN – Raytheon 13.0 1.8 1.0
RSC – REX Stores 5.1 0.4 0.4
COL – Rockwell Collins 10.6 4.4 1.6
RDC – Rowan Companies 5.2 1.1 1.4
SWY – Safeway 10.5 1.4 0.4
BID – Sothebys 5.9 1.6 1.6
SUN – Sunoco 14.2 1.5 0.1
SVU – SUPERVALU 7.3 0.7 0.3
TGT – Target 12.6 2.5 0.8
TTM – Tata Motors 6.0 1.5 0.6
TEX – Terex Corp 3.7 0.9 0.3
TXT – Textron 6.1 1.7 1.1
MMM – 3M 12.1 3.6 1.9
TWX – Time Warner 11.1 0.7 1.7
TSN – Tyson Foods 60.0 0.9 0.3
USG – USG Corp NM 1.0 0.7
UL – Unilever 14.5 1.2 0.6
VIA.B – Viacom 8.1 2.1 1.6
WAG – Walgreen 12.7 2.2 0.5
WLP – WellPoint 7.7 1.1 0.4
WSM – Williams-Sonoma 13.5 1.3 0.4
WYE – Wyeth 11.1 2.6 2.1
YUM – Yum! Brands 15.0 25.1 1.6
ZMH – Zimmer Holdings 17.1 2.4 3.3
ACMR – AC Moore 14.8 0.6 0.2
AAPL – Apple 19.2 4.4 2.1
BAMM – Books-A-Million 5.4 0.8 0.2
CAKE – Cheesecake Factory 12.9 1.6 0.7
CTXS – Citrix Systems 20.1 2.1 2.3
DELL – Dell 11.1 10.6 0.4
EBAY – eBay 47.0 2.2 2.4
ERTS – Electronic Arts 13.6 2.4 1.9
EXPE – Expedia 13.2 0.8 1.3
FWLT – Foster Wheeler 8.3 5.1 0.6
LOJN – LoJack 8.4 0.8 0.3
MNST – Monster Worldwide 14.1 1.5 0.9
FLWS – 1-800-Flowers.com 15.2 1.4 0.4
OXPS – optionsXpress 10.2 4.3 1.5
RICK – Rick’s Cabaret 7.5 1.2 1.9
RMCF – Rocky Mountain Chocolate 10.3 4.3 1.6
SIGM – Sigma Designs 6.4 1.1 0.8
SPLS – Staples 14.3 2.4 0.9
SBUX – Starbucks 20.7 4.0 1.0
WFMI – Whole Foods 17.1 1.7 0.4
Obviously this is not an exhaustive list of all cheap stocks – these are just the ones that hit new 52 week lows today that I noticed.
Thursday, September 11, 2008
It Was Time for a Miss
In case you miss the rest of what I say below, I want to point out that I am calling this "time to buy".
No one is always right. I was very wrong on the Fannie preferred. I thought it was “money good” and it looks like it may well not be. As you are certainly aware the government socialized Fannie and Freddie over the past weekend and eliminated future dividends on the preferred stock. There may be some value in the securities at these prices [assuming 1) housing recovers 2) the government doesn’t run these into the ground and 3) congress doesn’t eliminate the outstanding equity in the future], however the risk is great enough that I would not recommend the preferred stock (and if you own Fannie or Freddie common and want to hold on for the potential gain if the above 3 points are true you should sell, take the tax loss and buy the preferred in the same sized investment rather than holding the common – there’s a far higher chance of the preferred being worth something than the common). At least the government gave us the Q3 dividend on the preferred.
Also I recommended two oil companies which did poorly as oil fell and hedge funds that owned the oil producers have been forced to sell.
My outlook is this: I think this is time to buy. I expect that the July lows will in fact hold for the market and with Fannie/Freddie resolved (and I expect Lehman will be resolved similarly by Monday) there should be a lot less uncertainty. Furthermore I believe that the government took over Fannie and Freddie for the purpose of lowering mortgage rates, which has in fact happened significantly this week. If financing rates are cheaper home prices don’t seem as high and I think this will aid the housing recovery which I see occurring sometime in late Q1 or Q2 of next year (as mentioned here previously). If housing can stabilize this is very good for the stock market. Generally I do not see a global recession in the offing, which most market participants are betting on. If I’m right performance should be good relative to the market for a while, while if I’m wrong it will be poor. Generally I like financials, industrials, and energy companies currently.
Since I now have so much credibility in recommending beaten down financial preferred shares, I am going to recommend WM-PK. This is a preferred stock issued by Washington Mutual. I believe that the rumors of WaMu’s demise have been greatly exaggerated. The stock is somewhat cheap, but I don’t think after the massively diluted capital raise earlier this year that there will be a terrific return for common shareholders anytime soon. However with capital levels that are some of the highest in the industry and fairly solid reserves against losses their current condition is not bad. The concern is that their holdings of option adjustable rate mortgages will sour in the future when those negative amortization minimum payments turn into fully amortizing regular payments (i.e. when people stop being allowed to make a token payment and have to pay their full mortgage principal and interest installments). However, as mentioned above the government is lowering interest rates for mortgages – this has the distinct possibility of causing a turning point in the housing market. And those option ARMs don’t convert to amortizing payments soon for the most part – so there’s plenty of time for recovery in housing. Finally WaMu could always renegotiate the loans and allow for smaller payments from the borrowers which could reduce defaults if markets remain bad.
Energy: OPEC seems to be saying that they will defend $100/barrel oil prices which should be good for oil companies as their shares seem to have priced in much lower levels. Also global demand for commodities has dried up in the recent past as China had loaded up prior to the Olympics and then stopped buying, but I see this reversing as the Chinese pollution controls are returned to normal and the Olympics inventory is burned through. Probably positive for coal, copper, and oil, but I’m not very good at predicting commodity price moves.
Since the last update the recommended stocks [MMM (-1.37%), UNH (-1.12%), PETS (13.62%), APA (-5.94%), OXY (-16.28%), SNY (0.60%), DPS (5.87%), AEO (19.64%), ADSK (-6.28%), AIB (-5.55%), and FNM-PS (-71.02%)] averaged a loss of 6.17%, underperforming the S&P 500 [-2.09%] by 4.07%. Since inception on 7/31/2007 the recommendations have gained 19.87%, outperforming the S&P 500 [-12.10%] by 31.97%.
I recommend at this time: MMM, UNH, PETS, APA, DPS, ADSK, AIB, PBR, TEX, and WM-PK.
Many happy returns.
No one is always right. I was very wrong on the Fannie preferred. I thought it was “money good” and it looks like it may well not be. As you are certainly aware the government socialized Fannie and Freddie over the past weekend and eliminated future dividends on the preferred stock. There may be some value in the securities at these prices [assuming 1) housing recovers 2) the government doesn’t run these into the ground and 3) congress doesn’t eliminate the outstanding equity in the future], however the risk is great enough that I would not recommend the preferred stock (and if you own Fannie or Freddie common and want to hold on for the potential gain if the above 3 points are true you should sell, take the tax loss and buy the preferred in the same sized investment rather than holding the common – there’s a far higher chance of the preferred being worth something than the common). At least the government gave us the Q3 dividend on the preferred.
Also I recommended two oil companies which did poorly as oil fell and hedge funds that owned the oil producers have been forced to sell.
My outlook is this: I think this is time to buy. I expect that the July lows will in fact hold for the market and with Fannie/Freddie resolved (and I expect Lehman will be resolved similarly by Monday) there should be a lot less uncertainty. Furthermore I believe that the government took over Fannie and Freddie for the purpose of lowering mortgage rates, which has in fact happened significantly this week. If financing rates are cheaper home prices don’t seem as high and I think this will aid the housing recovery which I see occurring sometime in late Q1 or Q2 of next year (as mentioned here previously). If housing can stabilize this is very good for the stock market. Generally I do not see a global recession in the offing, which most market participants are betting on. If I’m right performance should be good relative to the market for a while, while if I’m wrong it will be poor. Generally I like financials, industrials, and energy companies currently.
Since I now have so much credibility in recommending beaten down financial preferred shares, I am going to recommend WM-PK. This is a preferred stock issued by Washington Mutual. I believe that the rumors of WaMu’s demise have been greatly exaggerated. The stock is somewhat cheap, but I don’t think after the massively diluted capital raise earlier this year that there will be a terrific return for common shareholders anytime soon. However with capital levels that are some of the highest in the industry and fairly solid reserves against losses their current condition is not bad. The concern is that their holdings of option adjustable rate mortgages will sour in the future when those negative amortization minimum payments turn into fully amortizing regular payments (i.e. when people stop being allowed to make a token payment and have to pay their full mortgage principal and interest installments). However, as mentioned above the government is lowering interest rates for mortgages – this has the distinct possibility of causing a turning point in the housing market. And those option ARMs don’t convert to amortizing payments soon for the most part – so there’s plenty of time for recovery in housing. Finally WaMu could always renegotiate the loans and allow for smaller payments from the borrowers which could reduce defaults if markets remain bad.
Energy: OPEC seems to be saying that they will defend $100/barrel oil prices which should be good for oil companies as their shares seem to have priced in much lower levels. Also global demand for commodities has dried up in the recent past as China had loaded up prior to the Olympics and then stopped buying, but I see this reversing as the Chinese pollution controls are returned to normal and the Olympics inventory is burned through. Probably positive for coal, copper, and oil, but I’m not very good at predicting commodity price moves.
Since the last update the recommended stocks [MMM (-1.37%), UNH (-1.12%), PETS (13.62%), APA (-5.94%), OXY (-16.28%), SNY (0.60%), DPS (5.87%), AEO (19.64%), ADSK (-6.28%), AIB (-5.55%), and FNM-PS (-71.02%)] averaged a loss of 6.17%, underperforming the S&P 500 [-2.09%] by 4.07%. Since inception on 7/31/2007 the recommendations have gained 19.87%, outperforming the S&P 500 [-12.10%] by 31.97%.
I recommend at this time: MMM, UNH, PETS, APA, DPS, ADSK, AIB, PBR, TEX, and WM-PK.
Many happy returns.
Thursday, August 21, 2008
Where's the Bear?
The market continued down until it bottomed on 7/15/2008 at 1,200.44. In my prior estimations, this could be the top of the range for the “bottom”. In other words, there’s a risk we may see a new low sometime over the next several months. However, I expect that the market is in a rally, and will continue for some time (how long or how high I do not know).
Specifically I want to comment on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. I’ve posted about this before so I won’t rehash, but suffice it to say I expect that the preferred securities are “money good”, and so I will recommend them here. In order to not skew my recommendations I will only recommend one, and I choose Fannie over Freddie. Why? Because Fannie is in a better capital position than Freddie and if things get really bad for one and not the other, Freddie will be the worse. The ticker on Yahoo for the liquid issue of preferreds from Fannie is FNM-PS, but it is known on some sites as FNMpS and others still as FNMPRS. Most of the other preferred issues from the agencies have essentially no liquidity and offer huge bid/ask spreads, so I would avoid them.
I expect that FNM-PS will be volatile, and it will not surprise me to see continued double digit percentage increases and drops on single days. It would also not phase me at this price if Fannie did not declare the dividend on their preferred – the only concern I have is nationalization wherein the preferred is wiped out, which I don’t expect, and have posted reasons why here prior.
Since the last update the recommended stocks [MMM (-0.66%), UNH (-0.49%), JNJ (+1.18%), PEP (+1.27%), BBY (+7.65%), BDK (-1.34%), PETS (-6.85%), JOSB (+13.11%), and WNR (+20.15%)] averaged a gain of 3.78%, outperforming the S&P 500 [+0.34%] by 3.44%.
I recommend at this time MMM, UNH, PETS, APA, OXY, SNY, DPS, AEO, ADSK, AIB, and FNM-PS.
Specifically I want to comment on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. I’ve posted about this before so I won’t rehash, but suffice it to say I expect that the preferred securities are “money good”, and so I will recommend them here. In order to not skew my recommendations I will only recommend one, and I choose Fannie over Freddie. Why? Because Fannie is in a better capital position than Freddie and if things get really bad for one and not the other, Freddie will be the worse. The ticker on Yahoo for the liquid issue of preferreds from Fannie is FNM-PS, but it is known on some sites as FNMpS and others still as FNMPRS. Most of the other preferred issues from the agencies have essentially no liquidity and offer huge bid/ask spreads, so I would avoid them.
I expect that FNM-PS will be volatile, and it will not surprise me to see continued double digit percentage increases and drops on single days. It would also not phase me at this price if Fannie did not declare the dividend on their preferred – the only concern I have is nationalization wherein the preferred is wiped out, which I don’t expect, and have posted reasons why here prior.
Since the last update the recommended stocks [MMM (-0.66%), UNH (-0.49%), JNJ (+1.18%), PEP (+1.27%), BBY (+7.65%), BDK (-1.34%), PETS (-6.85%), JOSB (+13.11%), and WNR (+20.15%)] averaged a gain of 3.78%, outperforming the S&P 500 [+0.34%] by 3.44%.
I recommend at this time MMM, UNH, PETS, APA, OXY, SNY, DPS, AEO, ADSK, AIB, and FNM-PS.
Tuesday, August 05, 2008
Changes
So only a few days into year 2 and I am already making changes. Most notably I am dropping EWBC from my recommendations as it has reached 80% of what I believe it is worth and has risen too fast. Since June 27th when I first recommended EWBC here it has risen 104% - which given that this increase has occurred in a little over a month makes me comfortable with selling – for now.
I’m also going to again recommend WNR – an oil refiner. This was disastrous last year and probably will be again, however with oil having already fallen precipitously (however I do not believe oil will continue to fall forever) and gasoline remaining relatively stable the refiners should at least have a shot at earning a profit. WNR is risky in that they may decide to dilute shareholders by raising additional capital, which is how this investment may not work.
Also I’m adding JOSB – Jos A Banks which is an extremely well managed and cheap retailer of men’s dress clothes.
Since the last update the recommended stocks [EWBC (+23.62%), MMM (+2.12%), UNH (+8.44%), JNJ (+2.89%), PEP (+2.94%), BBY (+3.70%), BDK (+3.40%), PETS (+2.76%)] averaged a gain of 6.23%, outperforming the S&P 500 [+1.39%] by 4.84%.
I recommend at this time MMM, UNH, JNJ, PEP, BBY, BDK, PETS, JOSB, and WNR.
I’m also going to again recommend WNR – an oil refiner. This was disastrous last year and probably will be again, however with oil having already fallen precipitously (however I do not believe oil will continue to fall forever) and gasoline remaining relatively stable the refiners should at least have a shot at earning a profit. WNR is risky in that they may decide to dilute shareholders by raising additional capital, which is how this investment may not work.
Also I’m adding JOSB – Jos A Banks which is an extremely well managed and cheap retailer of men’s dress clothes.
Since the last update the recommended stocks [EWBC (+23.62%), MMM (+2.12%), UNH (+8.44%), JNJ (+2.89%), PEP (+2.94%), BBY (+3.70%), BDK (+3.40%), PETS (+2.76%)] averaged a gain of 6.23%, outperforming the S&P 500 [+1.39%] by 4.84%.
I recommend at this time MMM, UNH, JNJ, PEP, BBY, BDK, PETS, JOSB, and WNR.
Thursday, July 31, 2008
First Year
I can promise one thing – there will never be another year that I will achieve as much positive relative performance to the S&P 500 as this first year. So the best is now safely behind us.
I am not changing the current recommendations, but did want to provide an update so that there will be a record of the annual return. Over the period since the last update the recommended stocks [EWBC (+11.94%), MMM (+2.42%), UNH (+17.83%), JNJ (+2.03%), PEP (+3.27%), BBY (+3.55%), BDK (+5.91%), PETS (+4.17%)] averaged a gain of 6.39%, outperforming the S&P 500 [+0.59%] by 5.80%.
Over the first year my recommendations returned +15.88%, compared to the S&P 500’s -11.11% for total outperformance of 26.99%. My goal continues to be outperforming the market by 1.5% per quarter, and these extreme results likely will never be repeated.
I also would like to point out that these recommendations are only for your thoughtful consideration and that it would be imprudent for any person to blindly copy my recommendations – read at your own risk.
Send me an email if you’d like at Mark.Hanna79@gmail.com. Many happy returns.
I am not changing the current recommendations, but did want to provide an update so that there will be a record of the annual return. Over the period since the last update the recommended stocks [EWBC (+11.94%), MMM (+2.42%), UNH (+17.83%), JNJ (+2.03%), PEP (+3.27%), BBY (+3.55%), BDK (+5.91%), PETS (+4.17%)] averaged a gain of 6.39%, outperforming the S&P 500 [+0.59%] by 5.80%.
Over the first year my recommendations returned +15.88%, compared to the S&P 500’s -11.11% for total outperformance of 26.99%. My goal continues to be outperforming the market by 1.5% per quarter, and these extreme results likely will never be repeated.
I also would like to point out that these recommendations are only for your thoughtful consideration and that it would be imprudent for any person to blindly copy my recommendations – read at your own risk.
Send me an email if you’d like at Mark.Hanna79@gmail.com. Many happy returns.
Monday, July 21, 2008
How's the Water?
Well I’ve been on a roll. I guess that means it’s time for a miss. I’m going to predict that the market heads lower until we bottom in September/October/November (sound familiar?).
“This sure feels like a recession” – even though the numbers haven’t borne witness to it. Economists in one recent poll (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121660918668269545.html) seemed to see positive GDP growth in the second half of 2008 – with only 10% forecasting a contraction (recession). Stock prices have gotten interesting and eventually it pays to bite the bullet and buy in spite of bad news and a gloomy outlook. It’s time to dip your toes in the water, but not yet dive in. Generally when a recession is confirmed (headlines etc) then it is time to buy. This will likely not happen until October/November at the soonest.
In case it’s gone unnoticed, I prefer to buy what no one else likes – the stocks that are cheap and don’t have to produce huge growth and beat estimates in order to be a profitable investment. Chasing ever higher estimates is difficult – not going out of business is easy. While tech stocks have not gotten to the “no brainer” price yet, they’re heading that way fast.
This market is perfect for loading up on your favorites. To beat a dead horse again, think of this as a sale – 20% off – but there’s a lot of rubbish in this rummage sale. If you buy great businesses then you can get a terrific bargain; if you purchase something that wears out or has problems with its design – then the bargain you thought you were getting wasn’t one at all.
I am a believer that quality is the way to go when it comes to buying companies – and this is a good time to reiterate this – if the business isn’t the highest quality then this is probably not the right time, or price, to buy.
My prior recommendations [EWBC (+47.57%), MMM (-1.12%), UNH (-8.38%), JNJ (+5.57%), UYG (-1.21%), XHB (-1.97%), DNA (+29.10%)] averaged a gain of 9.94%, which outperformed the S&P 500 (-1.44%) by a whopping 11.38%. I recommend at this time EWBC, MMM, UNH, JNJ, PEP, BBY, BDK, PETS.
Overall record since I began posting recommendations on this blog on 7/31/07 has been +8.92%, compared to the S&P 500's -13.44%. My goal continues to be outperforming the market by 1.5% per quarter, so don’t expect that the next year will look as good.
Some other businesses that you might consider putting on your shopping list:
PG – Proctor & Gamble
CSCO – Cisco
KO – Coca Cola
AMGN – Amgen
LLY – Eli Lilly
BAC – Bank of America
JPM – JP Morgan
TGT – Target
FDX – FedEx
ODP – Office Depot
SPLS – Staples
SBUX – Starbucks
ADSK – Autodesk
CVH – Coventry
FIS – Fidelity Information Systems
JOSB – Jos A. Bank
LOJN – LoJack
RMCF – Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory
“This sure feels like a recession” – even though the numbers haven’t borne witness to it. Economists in one recent poll (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121660918668269545.html) seemed to see positive GDP growth in the second half of 2008 – with only 10% forecasting a contraction (recession). Stock prices have gotten interesting and eventually it pays to bite the bullet and buy in spite of bad news and a gloomy outlook. It’s time to dip your toes in the water, but not yet dive in. Generally when a recession is confirmed (headlines etc) then it is time to buy. This will likely not happen until October/November at the soonest.
In case it’s gone unnoticed, I prefer to buy what no one else likes – the stocks that are cheap and don’t have to produce huge growth and beat estimates in order to be a profitable investment. Chasing ever higher estimates is difficult – not going out of business is easy. While tech stocks have not gotten to the “no brainer” price yet, they’re heading that way fast.
This market is perfect for loading up on your favorites. To beat a dead horse again, think of this as a sale – 20% off – but there’s a lot of rubbish in this rummage sale. If you buy great businesses then you can get a terrific bargain; if you purchase something that wears out or has problems with its design – then the bargain you thought you were getting wasn’t one at all.
I am a believer that quality is the way to go when it comes to buying companies – and this is a good time to reiterate this – if the business isn’t the highest quality then this is probably not the right time, or price, to buy.
My prior recommendations [EWBC (+47.57%), MMM (-1.12%), UNH (-8.38%), JNJ (+5.57%), UYG (-1.21%), XHB (-1.97%), DNA (+29.10%)] averaged a gain of 9.94%, which outperformed the S&P 500 (-1.44%) by a whopping 11.38%. I recommend at this time EWBC, MMM, UNH, JNJ, PEP, BBY, BDK, PETS.
Overall record since I began posting recommendations on this blog on 7/31/07 has been +8.92%, compared to the S&P 500's -13.44%. My goal continues to be outperforming the market by 1.5% per quarter, so don’t expect that the next year will look as good.
Some other businesses that you might consider putting on your shopping list:
PG – Proctor & Gamble
CSCO – Cisco
KO – Coca Cola
AMGN – Amgen
LLY – Eli Lilly
BAC – Bank of America
JPM – JP Morgan
TGT – Target
FDX – FedEx
ODP – Office Depot
SPLS – Staples
SBUX – Starbucks
ADSK – Autodesk
CVH – Coventry
FIS – Fidelity Information Systems
JOSB – Jos A. Bank
LOJN – LoJack
RMCF – Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory
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