2008

We are now officially on the road to 2008 - we're at the start of the presidential election cycle. As I mentioned in a previous post, 2008 is still a long way off, and I think the biggest mistake the Democrats could make along the road to '08 is to continue their partisan ways in Congress and nominate lots of far-left-wingers to run in the Democratic primary.

As a side note, I think we'll see Harold Ford Jr. run for US Senator from TN again in 2008.

There's an interesting article in today's Wall Street Journal detailing the early handicapping of the presidency race in 2008:

McCain, Biden Set to Be '08 Players As Feingold Rules Out Presidential Run
WASHINGTON -- Republican Sen. John McCain said he is taking the initial steps for a White House bid in 2008, setting up a committee that allows a potential candidate to raise money and travel the country to gauge support.
Democratic Sen. Joe Biden reaffirmed his intention to seek his party's nomination, though an announcement about establishing an exploratory committee probably won't come until early next year.
The anticipated wide-open campaign -- for the first time since the 1928 race, the field won't include a sitting president or vice president -- lost one possible participant when Sen. Russ Feingold (D., Wis.) decided against a long-shot run.
...
Mr. McCain is a former Navy pilot who was a prisoner of war in Vietnam. He was elected to the Senate in 1986, and served in the House for four years before that. During the 2006 election cycle, Mr. McCain attended 346 events and raising more than $10.5 million on behalf of Republican candidates. He also donated nearly $1.5 million to federal, state and county parties.
The 63-year-old Sen. Biden, who is line to take over as chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, also ran for president before, dropping from the 1988 race after it became known he had lifted a portion of a speech from a British politician without attribution.
...
Last week Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack announced his candidacy. Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York is widely considered the front-runner. Others mentioned include Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts, the 2004 nominee; former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina, the vice presidential nominee two years ago; Sens. Barack Obama of Illinois, Evan Bayh of Indiana and Christopher Dodd of Connecticut; and New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson.
Republicans talked about for 2008 are Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney; Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist of Tennessee; Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, Sen. Sam Brownback of Kansas and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani. Republican Rep. Duncan Hunter of California, chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, said last month he is forming an exploratory committee.

Link for the full article.

John McCain - As a moderate sometimes Republican sometimes Democrat, I really like John McCain, although I know the NRA hates him, which makes it difficult for him to get the party's nomination.

Joe Biden - I really know nothing about this guy, which is weird because he's a big name.

Hillary Rodham Clinton - I believe Hillary is the best way for the Democrats to lose in 2008. I think she is totally unelectable to President. Now, she may be a viable VP candidate, although I don't think she would accept that nomination.

John Kerry - I honestly doubt he will run officially (by primary debate time, I doubt his hat will be in the ring).

John Edwards - I give John Edwards the highest odds of being our next President. I am not sure who I'd vote for between McCain and Edwards, but Edwards sure looks the part.

Barack Obama - I think if he runs he will not get the nomination. I saw (and I think Sen. Obama did as well) the Harold Ford Jr. campaign in Tennessee as a proxy for his chances in the south. Ford lost.

Mitt Romney - I honestly dislike Mitt Romney quite strongly. As a former resident of both Utah and Massachusetts, I know enough about him to know I would never vote for a ticket with him on it.

Bill Frist - As a resident of Tennessee, I also have a perspective on Sen. Frist. I like him, but not all conservatives around here do. I think he stands a decent chance.

Rudy Giuliani - I think he is totally unelectable by the Republicans , much like Hillary among Democrats. (I seriously doubt conservative Republicans will support a divorced former Governor who was kicked out of the Governor's mansion by his wife after he had an affair).

Election Results

I am glad that Bob Corker will be our new US Senator. I do admire Mr. Ford in that he ran a tough race, and was a more than gracious loser. While he will not be serving in Congress for 2 years, I think he will be back in public service in that time or less.


Nationally, many pundits have stated that the election would be and or turned out to be a referendum on the war with Iraq. However, I would define that more broadly, and state my view that the election turned out to be a referendum on Bush himself. Many sources (citing exit polls) have stated that approximately half of voters said they cast their votes for or against candidates as a way to send a message of opposition or support of President Bush:

More than a third of the electorate said it was voting to send a message of opposition to the president, according to Election Day interviews with more than 11,700 voters as they left the polls. That was 15 percent higher than the segment of voters who said they were voting in support of Bush.
Among voters who said they had backed Bush's 2004 re-election, one in six cast ballots for Democratic House candidates yesterday, the exit poll found.

That quote is from http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/nationworld/iraq/bal-te.election08nov08,0,925892.story?coll=bal-home-headlines .

It will certainly be interesting to see if the Democrat controlled House can work with the Republican controlled Senate and President Bush. I strongly suspect that not much will be accomplished by either side in Washington over the next two years. As a side note, usually a lack of activity in Washington is good for the stock market.

Vote Today

Tuesday, November 07, 2006
Vote Category: News and Politics
Vote today, if you haven't already.

Big time election in the Tennessee US Senator race: Bob Corker (R) (49%) vs. Harold Ford Jr. (D) (46%).

From the Wall Street Journal: "With the resignation of Bill Frist, the GOP is hoping Bob Corker can snag this seat. Although Corker leads over the Democrats' Harold Ford in all of the most recent polls, his average margin is only six percentage points, making this race too close to call."

I believe that Corker will win, and he is who I am voting for (even though two weeks ago, 10/26, Harold Ford Jr. literally gave me a big old bear hug).

Why should you vote either way in this election? Here are some of the commonly cited reasons pro and con on each candidate (these are not necessarily my views):
For Harold Ford Jr.: He's smart, a well presented handsome man (slick according to Republicans), well educated and has years of experience in DC. He is moderate (more conservative than most Democrats) on social issues and a fiscal liberal.
For Bob Corker: He's a Tennessee businessman who has been the very successful mayor of Chattanooga for years and is conservative on social and fiscal policy. He's not a dyed in the wool politician.

Against Harold Ford Jr.: He is the more liberal of the two candidates, he is from a family that is at the head of the Memphis political machine and that has often been seen as corrupt and thuggish. He failed the bar exam after graduating from a prestigious law school. He has not had a "real" job except in politics.
Against Bob Corker: He is the more conservative of the two candidates, and he is rich ($200 million), and is portrayed as looking out for the interests of the wealthy. There were some snafus early on in his time as mayor of Chattanooga. He is portrayed as being too close to oil interests (his campaign manager is the CEO of a gasoline retailer).